Vulnerability of cloud forest reserves in Mexico to climate change

Abstract

How effective are protected areas for conserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing world? A study shows that the network of protected areas in Mexico’s cloud forests—a biome with high species richness and a large fraction of endemics—is almost completely redundant in a changing climate. Tropical montane cloud forests are among the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems to climate change1,2,3 owing to their restricted climatic requirements and their narrow and fragmented distribution4. Although 12% of Mexican cloud forest is protected, it is not known whether reserves will ensure the persistence of the ecosystem and its endemic species under climate change. Here, we show that 68% of Mexico’s cloud forest could vanish by 2080 because of climate change and more than 90% of cloud forest that is protected at present will not be climatically suitable for that ecosystem in 2080. Moreover, if we assume unprotected forests are cleared, 99% of the entire ecosystem could be lost through a combination of climate change and habitat loss, resulting in the extinction of about 70% of endemic cloud forest vertebrate species. Immediate action is required to minimize this loss—expansion of the protected-area estate in areas of low climate vulnerability is an urgent priority. Our analysis indicates that one key area for immediate protection is the Sierra de Juárez in Oaxaca. This area supports many endemic species and is expected to retain relatively large fragments of cloud forest despite rapid climate change.

Cite this article

Ponce-Reyes, R., Reynoso-Rosales, VH., Watson, J. et al. Vulnerability of cloud forest reserves in Mexico to climate change. Nature Clim Change 2, 448–452 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1453

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