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Abstract
Analysts implicitily assume that increasing renewable-energy generation by one unit displaces conventional energy by the same amount. Research now shows that, owing to the complexity of our socio–economic systems, each unit of total national non-fossil-fuel energy use displaced less than one-quarter of a unit of fossil-fuel energy use over the past 50 years. A fundamental, generally implicit, assumption of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and many energy analysts is that each unit of energy supplied by non-fossil-fuel sources takes the place of a unit of energy supplied by fossil-fuel sources1,2,3,4. However, owing to the complexity of economic systems and human behaviour, it is often the case that changes aimed at reducing one type of resource consumption, either through improvements in efficiency of use or by developing substitutes, do not lead to the intended outcome when net effects are considered5,6,7,8,9. Here, I show that the average pattern across most nations of the world over the past fifty years is one where each unit of total national energy use from non-fossil-fuel sources displaced less than one-quarter of a unit of fossil-fuel energy use and, focusing specifically on electricity, each unit of electricity generated by non-fossil-fuel sources displaced less than one-tenth of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated electricity. These results challenge conventional thinking in that they indicate that suppressing the use of fossil fuel will require changes other than simply technical ones such as expanding non-fossil-fuel energy production.Cite this article
York, R. Do alternative energy sources displace fossil fuels?. Nature Clim Change 2, 441–443 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1451 