Author: ["Andrew J. Dowdy","Graham A. Mills","Bertrand Timbal","Yang Wang"]
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Abstract
Large ocean waves are predominantly caused by winds associated with extratropical cyclones. However, these winds are poorly represented in current global climate models, making wave projection difficult. A statistical study of large wave occurence in eastern Australia is applied to different climate models, allowing conclusions to be drawn about anthropogenic influence and improving wave projections. Extratropical cyclones are the main generators of the strong winds that cause large ocean waves in temperate regions of the world. The severity of the winds associated with these storms is poorly represented by the coarse resolution of current global climate models (GCMs), making it challenging to produce projections of the future climate of large waves. Wind data from GCMs can be downscaled in resolution using dynamical methods, resulting in a successful reproduction of the mean wave climate, but a suboptimal reproduction of the storm wave climate1. Projections of large wave occurrence can also be produced using statistical downscaling methods, although such methods have previously been applied only to three or less GCMs2,3, preventing a robust assessment of confidence in projections based on variation between models. Consequently, considerable uncertainty remains in projections of the future storm wave climate. Here we apply a statistical diagnostic of large wave occurrence in eastern Australia to 18 different GCMs, allowing model variations to be examined in greater detail than previously possible. Results are remarkably consistent between different GCMs, allowing anthropogenic influences to be clearly demonstrated, with fewer days with large waves expected to occur in eastern Australia due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.Cite this article
Dowdy, A., Mills, G., Timbal, B. et al. Fewer large waves projected for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess. Nature Clim Change 4, 283–286 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2142 