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Abstract
Understanding how sensitive the climate is to different forcings is essential for projecting change. Analysis of results from climate model intercomparison projects shows that the climate has a greater sensitivity to aerosols and ozone compared with CO2. This result means that the low-range projections of climate response to CO2, <1.3 °C, are unlikely. Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses1,2,3 have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10–15 years during which forcing has increased markedly4. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities5,6. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments7 (<1.3 °C) is very unlikely.Cite this article
Shindell, D. Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity. Nature Clim Change 4, 274–277 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2136 