Author: ["Eve McDonald-Madden","Michael C. Runge","Hugh P. Possingham","Tara G. Martin"]
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Abstract
Managed relocation, whereby species are moved to a more suitable habitat, has been proposed as a means of combating negative climate-change impacts on biodiversity. A quantitative decision framework to evaluate the optimal timing of relocation shows that in some cases, such as when population size is small, haste is ill advised. Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.Cite this article
McDonald-Madden, E., Runge, M., Possingham, H. et al. Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change. Nature Clim Change 1, 261–265 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1170 