Author: ["P. Friedlingstein","S. Solomon","G-K. Plattner","R. Knutti","P. Ciais","M. R. Raupach"]
CITE.CC academic search helps you expand the influence of your papers.
Abstract
Decisions about how soon, how quickly and by how much carbon dioxide emissions are reduced will determine whether the climate target of limiting warming to 2 °C can be met. Research reveals that it will probably only be possible if ambitious reductions are implemented within the next two decades and emissions eventually fall to zero. Long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide1,2,3,4. Previous studies have estimated that humankind has already emitted about 50% of the total amount allowed if warming, relative to pre-industrial, is to stay below 2 °C (refs 1, 2). Carbon dioxide emissions will thus need to decrease substantially in the future if this target is to be met. Here we show how links between near-term decisions, long-term behaviour and climate sensitivity uncertainties constrain options for emissions mitigation. Using a model of intermediate complexity5,6, we explore the implications of non-zero long-term global emissions, combined with various near-term mitigation rates or delays in action. For a median climate sensitivity, a long-term 90% emission reduction relative to the present-day level is incompatible with a 2 °C target within the coming millennium. Zero or negative emissions can be compatible with the target if medium to high emission-reduction rates begin within the next two decades. For a high climate sensitivity, however, even negative emissions would require a global mitigation rate at least as great as the highest rate considered feasible by economic models7,8 to be implemented within the coming decade. Only a low climate sensitivity would allow for a longer delay in mitigation action and a more conservative mitigation rate, and would still require at least 90% phase-out of emissions thereafter.Cite this article
Friedlingstein, P., Solomon, S., Plattner, GK. et al. Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation. Nature Clim Change 1, 457–461 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1302 