Earlier wine-grape ripening driven by climatic warming and drying and management practices

Abstract

Trends in phenological phases associated with climate change are widely reported, yet attribution remains rare. Attribution analysis of trends in wine-grape maturity in Australia indicates that two climate variables—warming and declines in soil water content—are driving a major portion of the earlier-ripening trend. Crop-yield reductions and evolving management practices have also contributed. Trends in phenological phases associated with climate change are widely reported—yet attribution remains rare. Attribution research in biological systems is critical in assisting stakeholders to develop adaptation strategies, particularly if human factors may be exacerbating impacts1. Detailed, quantified attribution helps to effectively target adaptation strategies, and counters recent tendencies to overattribute phenological trends to climate shifts2. Wine grapes have been ripening earlier in Australia in recent years3, often with undesirable impacts. Attribution analysis of detected trends in wine-grape maturity, using time series of up to 64 years in duration, indicates that two climate variables—warming and declines in soil water content—are driving a major portion of this ripening trend. Crop-yield reductions and evolving management practices have probably also contributed to earlier ripening. Potential adaptation options are identified, as some drivers of the trend to earlier maturity can be manipulated through directed management initiatives, such as managing soil moisture and crop yield.

Cite this article

Webb, L., Whetton, P., Bhend, J. et al. Earlier wine-grape ripening driven by climatic warming and drying and management practices. Nature Clim Change 2, 259–264 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1417

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