Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change

Abstract

In 1990 the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was produced. It contained a prediction of the global-mean-temperature trend for 1990–2030 which, halfway through that period, appears accurate. This is remarkable in hindsight, considering a number of important external forcings were not included. This study concludes the greenhouse-gas-induced warming is largely overwhelming the other forcings. In 1990, climate scientists from around the world wrote the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It contained a prediction of the global mean temperature trend over the 1990–2030 period that, halfway through that period, seems accurate. This is all the more remarkable in hindsight, considering that a number of important external forcings were not included. So how did this success arise? In the end, the greenhouse-gas-induced warming is largely overwhelming the other forcings, which are only of secondary importance on the 20-year timescale.

Cite this article

Frame, D., Stone, D. Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change. Nature Clim Change 3, 357–359 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1763

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