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Abstract
A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided. This study uses a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in the future contributions of melting ice sheets to sea-level rise, using a structured elicitation approach. The median estimate obtained is substantially larger than that found by previous studies. Expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided on the key issue of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is a long-term trend or due to natural variability.Cite this article
Bamber, J., Aspinall, W. An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets. Nature Clim Change 3, 424–427 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1778 