Author: ["Mark A. Hemer","Yalin Fan","Nobuhito Mori","Alvaro Semedo","Xiaolan L. Wang"]
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Abstract
Changing wind-wave climate has the potential to exacerbate, or negate, the impacts of sea-level rise in coastal zones. Results from the first community-derived multi-model ensemble of wind-wave climate projections show agreement over extended regions of the global ocean. Large uncertainty in available wave-climate projections is found to be due to downscaling methods. Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for the operation and design of coastal, near- and off-shore industries and ecosystems, and may further exacerbate the anticipated vulnerabilities of coastal regions to projected sea-level rise1,2. However, wind waves have received little attention in global assessments of projected future climate change. We present results from the first community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave-climate projections. We find an agreed projected decrease in annual mean significant wave height (HS) over 25.8% of the global ocean area. The area of projected decrease is greater during boreal winter (January–March, mean; 38.5% of the global ocean area) than austral winter (July–September, mean; 8.4%). A projected increase in annual mean HS is found over 7.1% of the global ocean, predominantly in the Southern Ocean, which is greater during austral winter (July–September; 8.8%). Increased Southern Ocean wave activity influences a larger proportion of the global ocean as swell propagates northwards into the other ocean basins, observed as an increase in annual mean wave period (TM) over 30.2% of the global ocean and associated rotation of the annual mean wave direction (θM). The multi-model ensemble is too limited to systematically sample total uncertainty associated with wave-climate projections. However, variance of wave-climate projections associated with study methodology dominates other sources of uncertainty (for example, climate scenario and model uncertainties).Cite this article
Hemer, M., Fan, Y., Mori, N. et al. Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble. Nature Clim Change 3, 471–476 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1791 