The social cost of CO2 in a low-growth world

Abstract

Climate change mitigation has slowed down as major emitters face economic stagnation. Research now shows that the average cost to society of an additional tonne of carbon dioxide emissions tends to increase during recessions as the impact occurs in a poorer world. This suggests that climate change mitigation should be a priority in a low-growth situation. Action on mitigating climate change seems to be grinding to a halt within the global political arena. Major emitters seem unwilling to accept binding emissions reductions targets as their economies have stagnated. The talks at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Copenhagen in 2009 were meant to represent a watershed moment for global cooperation on climate change1 but produced little more than a symbolic accord2. Fast forward another three years and the outcomes of the Doha negotiations3,4,5 deferred the key decisions on climate change mitigation to 2015, as the Durban Platform did before6. Is this neglect justified? Here we use the PAGE09 integrated assessment model7 to estimate the mean social cost of CO2 for a wide range of economic growth scenarios. The social cost of CO2 measures the net present value of the extra damage caused by the emission of one more tonne of CO2 today. The results show that in a world with sustained lower economic growth the mean social cost of CO2 increases because the climate impacts occur in a relatively poor world, suggesting that, if anything, mitigating climate change should be a higher priority for policymakers in a low-growth world.

Cite this article

Hope, C., Hope, M. The social cost of CO₂ in a low-growth world. Nature Clim Change 3, 722–724 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1935

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