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Abstract
A modelling study shows how global temperatures would change if all greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions were eliminated. The researchers estimate the committed future climate warming associated with past anthropogenic emissions, and provide a critical baseline against which to measure the effect of future emissions. The climate response to scenarios of zero future greenhouse-gas emissions can be interpreted as the committed future warming associated with past emissions, and represents a critical benchmark against which to estimate the effect of future emissions1,2. Recent climate-model simulations have shown that when emissions of carbon dioxide alone are eliminated, global temperature stabilizes and remains approximately constant for several centuries2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Here, we show that when aerosol and other greenhouse-gas emissions are also eliminated, global temperature increases by a few tenths of a degree over about a decade, as a result of the rapid removal of present-day aerosol forcing. This initial warming is followed by a gradual cooling that returns global temperature to present-day levels after several centuries, owing to the decline in non-carbon dioxide greenhouse-gas concentrations. We show further that the magnitude of the peak temperature response to zero future emissions depends strongly on the uncertain strength of present-day aerosol forcing. Contingent on the climate and carbon-cycle sensitivities of the model used here, we show that the range of aerosol forcing that produces historical warming that is consistent with observed data, results in a warming of between 0.25 and 0.5 °C over the decade immediately following zeroed emissions.Cite this article
Matthews, H., Zickfeld, K. Climate response to zeroed emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Nature Clim Change 2, 338–341 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1424 