Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality
Author: ["A. Park Williams","Craig D. Allen","Alison K. Macalady","Daniel Griffin","Connie A. Woodhouse","David M. Meko","Thomas W. Swetnam","Sara A. Rauscher","Richard Seager","Henri D. Grissino-Mayer","Jeffrey S. Dean","Edward R. Cook","Chandana Gangodagamage","Michael Cai","Nate G. McDowell"]
Publication: Nature Climate Change
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Abstract
As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization. As the global climate changes, drought is expected to reduce productivity and tree survival across many forests; however, the relative influence of climate variables on forest decline remains poorly understood. A drought-stress index based on tree-ring data—newly developed for the southwestern United States—is found to be equally influenced by evaporation (primarily temperature driven) and precipitation and may serve as a holistic forest-vigour indicator in water-limited forests.
Cite this article
Park Williams, A., Allen, C., Macalady, A. et al. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nature Clim Change 3, 292–297 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693
