Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii
Author: ["Hiroyuki Murakami","Bin Wang","Tim Li","Akio Kitoh"]
Publication: Nature Climate Change
CITE.CC academic search helps you expand the influence of your papers.
Abstract
Future tropical cyclone activity is investigated around the Hawaiian Islands. Projections show a consistent and robust increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones by the end of the century. This increase is attributed to changes in large-scale circulation, which alters the cyclone tracks. Projections of the potential impacts of global warming on regional tropical cyclone activity are challenging owing to multiple sources of uncertainty in model physical schemes and different assumptions for future sea surface temperatures1. A key factor in projecting climate change is to derive robust signals of future changes in tropical cyclone activity across different model physical schemes and different future patterns in sea surface temperature. A suite of future warming experiments (2075–2099), using a state-of-the-art high-resolution global climate model1,2,3, robustly predicts an increase in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence around the Hawaiian Islands. A physically based empirical model analysis3,4 reveals that the substantial increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone frequency is primarily associated with a northwestward shifting of the tropical cyclone track in the open ocean southeast of the islands. Moreover, significant and robust changes in large-scale environmental conditions strengthen in situ tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical central Pacific. These results highlight possible future increases in storm-related socio-economic and ecosystem damage for the Hawaiian Islands.
Cite this article
Murakami, H., Wang, B., Li, T. et al. Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii. Nature Clim Change 3, 749–754 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1890
