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Abstract
The extent to which crop pests and pathogens have altered their latitudinal ranges in response to climate change remains largely unknown. Now observations of hundreds of pests and pathogens reveal an average poleward shift of 2.7±0.8 km yr−1 since 1960, supporting the hypothesis of climate-driven pest movement. Global food security is threatened by the emergence and spread of crop pests and pathogens. Spread is facilitated primarily by human transportation, but there is increasing concern that climate change allows establishment in hitherto unsuitable regions. However, interactions between climate change, crops and pests are complex, and the extent to which crop pests and pathogens have altered their latitudinal ranges in response to global warming is largely unknown. Here, we demonstrate an average poleward shift of 2.7±0.8 km yr−1 since 1960, in observations of hundreds of pests and pathogens, but with significant variation in trends among taxonomic groups. Observational bias, where developed countries at high latitudes detect pests earlier than developing countries at low latitudes, would result in an apparent shift towards the Equator. The observed positive latitudinal trends in many taxa support the hypothesis of global warming-driven pest movement.Cite this article
Bebber, D., Ramotowski, M. & Gurr, S. Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world. Nature Clim Change 3, 985–988 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1990 