Mapping vulnerability and conservation adaptation strategies under climate change

Abstract

Risk maps of climate impacts are potentially useful for targeting efforts to minimize ecological losses. However, most such maps only identify exposure to climate hazards. Now research that also identifies the proportion of intact natural vegetation (as a measure of adaptive capacity) provides global estimates of ecoregional vulnerability to climate change. Identification of spatial gradients in ecosystem vulnerability to global climate change and local stressors is an important step in the formulation and implementation of appropriate countermeasures1,2. Here we build on recent work to map ecoregional exposure to future climate, using an envelope-based gauge of future climate stability—defined as a measure of how similar the future climate of a region will be to the present climate3,4. We incorporate an assessment of each ecoregion’s adaptive capacity, based on spatial analysis of its natural integrity—the proportion of intact natural vegetation—to present a measure of global ecosystem vulnerability. The relationship between intactness (adaptive capacity) and stability (exposure) varies widely across ecoregions, with some of the most vulnerable, according to this measure, located in southern and southeastern Asia, western and central Europe, eastern South America and southern Australia. To ensure the applicability of these findings to conservation, we provide a matrix that highlights the potential implications of this vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning and offers a spatially explicit management guide.

Cite this article

Watson, J., Iwamura, T. & Butt, N. Mapping vulnerability and conservation adaptation strategies under climate change. Nature Clim Change 3, 989–994 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2007

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