Author: ["Ulrich Salzmann","Aisling M. Dolan","Alan M. Haywood","Wing-Le Chan","Jochen Voss","Daniel J. Hill","Ayako Abe-Ouchi","Bette Otto-Bliesner","Frances J. Bragg","Mark A. Chandler","Camille Contoux","Harry J. Dowsett","Anne Jost","Youichi Kamae","Gerrit Lohmann","Daniel J. Lunt","Steven J. Pickering","Matthew J. Pound","Gilles Ramstein","Nan A. Rosenbloom","Linda Sohl","Christian Stepanek","Hiroaki Ueda","Zhongshi Zhang"]
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Abstract
A global data set of proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions is used to assess the ability of eight climate models to simulate the warm environments of the Pliocene. Model results show a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Sensitivity tests identify temporal variability, the temperature difference over the proxy time range, as an important factor in model–data discrepancies, indicating that future comparisons should focus on time slices with the same orbital forcing Comparing simulations of key warm periods in Earth history with contemporaneous geological proxy data is a useful approach for evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate warm, high-CO2 climates that are unprecedented in the more recent past1,2,3. Here we use a global data set of confidence-assessed, proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions to assess the ability of eight models to simulate warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene epoch. The Late Pliocene, 3.6–2.6 million years ago, is an accessible geological interval to understand climate processes of a warmer world4. We show that model-predicted surface air temperatures reveal a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong data–model mismatches in mean annual temperatures (up to 18 °C) exist in northern Russia. Our model sensitivity tests identify insufficient temporal constraints hampering the accurate configuration of model boundary conditions as an important factor impacting on data–model discrepancies. We conclude that to allow a more robust evaluation of the ability of present climate models to predict warm climates, future Pliocene data–model comparison studies should focus on orbitally defined time slices5.Cite this article
Salzmann, U., Dolan, A., Haywood, A. et al. Challenges in quantifying Pliocene terrestrial warming revealed by data–model discord. Nature Clim Change 3, 969–974 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2008 