Author: ["Alison Johnston","Malcolm Ausden","Andrew M. Dodd","Richard B. Bradbury","Dan E. Chamberlain","Frédéric Jiguet","Chris D. Thomas","Aonghais S. C. P. Cook","Stuart E. Newson","Nancy Ockendon","Mark M. Rehfisch","Staffan Roos","Chris B. Thaxter","Andy Brown","Humphrey Q. P. Crick","Andrew Douse","Rob A. McCall","Helen Pontier","David A. Stroud","Bernard Cadiou","Olivia Crowe","Bernard Deceuninck","Menno Hornman","James W. Pearce-Higgins"]
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Abstract
The dynamic nature and diversity of species’ responses to climate change poses significant difficulties for developing robust, long-term conservation strategies. One key question is whether existing protected area networks will remain effective in a changing climate. To test this, we developed statistical models that link climate to the abundance of internationally important bird populations in northwestern Europe. Spatial climate–abundance models were able to predict 56% of the variation in recent 30-year population trends. Using these models, future climate change resulting in 4.0 °C global warming was projected to cause declines of at least 25% for more than half of the internationally important populations considered. Nonetheless, most EU Special Protection Areas in the UK were projected to retain species in sufficient abundances to maintain their legal status, and generally sites that are important now were projected to be important in the future. The biological and legal resilience of this network of protected areas is derived from the capacity for turnover in the important species at each site as species’ distributions and abundances alter in response to climate. Current protected areas are therefore predicted to remain important for future conservation in a changing climate. Will networks of protected areas remain effective as the climate changes? Research into the response of bird populations to climate variance and change attempts to shed light on this issue. Results suggest that despite projected declines in many of the species investigated, most sites that are designated as EU Special Protection Areas in the UK can be expected to retain their conservation value and legal status.Cite this article
Johnston, A., Ausden, M., Dodd, A. et al. Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas. Nature Clim Change 3, 1055–1061 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2035 