Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species’ responses to climate change
Author: ["Louise Mair","Jane K. Hill","Richard Fox","Marc Botham","Tom Brereton","Chris D. Thomas"]
Publication: Nature Climate Change
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Abstract
The rate at which species expand their geographic ranges in response to climate warming varies. Now research on British butterflies finds that stable or increasing abundance is a prerequisite for range expansion. This suggests that assessment of trends in abundance could help to improve predictions of the responses of species to climate change. There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species’ geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming1,2. Here we show that the relative importance of species’ abundance trends and habitat availability for British butterfly species vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the subset of species with stable abundances from the mid-1990s to 2009, when abundance trends were generally declining. This suggests that stable (or positive) abundance trends are a prerequisite for range expansion. Given that species’ abundance trends vary over time3 for non-climatic as well as climatic reasons, assessment of abundance trends will help improve predictions of species’ responses to climate change, and help us to understand the likely success of different conservation strategies for facilitating their expansions.
Cite this article
Mair, L., Hill, J., Fox, R. et al. Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species’ responses to climate change. Nature Clim Change 4, 127–131 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2086
