Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance
Author: ["Jeffrey Maynard","Ruben van Hooidonk","C. Mark Eakin","Marjetta Puotinen","Melissa Garren","Gareth Williams","Scott F. Heron","Joleah Lamb","Ernesto Weil","Bette Willis","C. Drew Harvell"]
Publication: Nature Climate Change
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Abstract
Rising sea temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of disease outbreaks affecting reef-building corals through impacts on coral hosts and pathogens. We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence. Both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios are examined. We also compare projections for the onset of disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by local human activities. There is great spatial variation in the projections, both among and within the major ocean basins, in conditions favouring disease development. Our results indicate that disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming decades. These projections identify priority locations to reduce stress caused by local human activities and test management interventions to reduce disease impacts. Rising water temperatures increase the susceptibility of reef-building corals to diseases caused by pathogens and to coral bleaching. Model projections indicate that disease is more likely to cause coral mortality than bleaching in coming decades.
Cite this article
Maynard, J., van Hooidonk, R., Eakin, C. et al. Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence. Nature Clim Change 5, 688–694 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2625
